If you're wondering how the pool of high school graduates will be changing in the next decade, a new report provides some answers. The National Center for Education Statistics projects that the number of public high school graduates will drop 1% nationally between 2007-08 and 2020-21.

The number of graduates in Minnesota is also projected to decrease 1% during this period — to 59,900 students in 2021. In the shorter term, however, the state will reach its low point in 2013-14, when the number will be 9% lower than in 2007-08.

Neighboring states will experience more dramatic declines by 2020-21. The number of high school graduates will be down 5% in Iowa, down 22% in Michigan, down 13% in North Dakota and down 8% in Wisconsin. South Dakota is the exception, with an 11% increase expected by 2020-21. Across the rest of the country, the trend varies with number of graduates generally increasing in Western and Southern states and decreasing in the Northeast, Midwest and Florida.

The bigger change ahead will be in the composition of potential future college students. When the number of Minnesota high school graduates begins to rise again in 2014, it will be a more racially and economically diverse group. The percent of graduates receiving subsidized lunch (an indicator of lower income families) will increase from about 32% in 2011 to 40% in 2020. Students of color are projected to grow from 18% of graduates in 2011-12 to 30% in 2020-21. National data show similar trends.

These demographic changes will have implications for Minnesota's labor force — since currently, students of color attend and graduate from college at lower rates than do white students. For example, four years after starting college in Minnesota, 43% of white students will graduate from college compared to 34% of students of color. Participation and completion gaps between white students and students of color may be attributed to high school education and preparation, family income, being a first-generation student or knowledge of availability of financial aid. Recent research by The Education Trust notes that wide gaps in graduation rates can be closed when institutions set goals and dedicate resources.

A steady supply of college-educated workers will be vital to the economic health of our state. Unless we act together to improve college-going and persistence among lower income students and students of color, Minnesota will have an inadequately educated workforce in the coming years.